Commentary, NFL Draft

NFL Mock Drafts: Expert predictions or “expert” guessing? You be the judge.

Over the last few years, I’ve struggled mightily with the perpetual flow of mock drafts and expert team needs assessments. For some, they are a lifeline to alleged “inside ” information of their favorite team’s plans. For others they are just a filler in an otherwise slow NFL off-season news cycle. Either way, you can’t shake a stick without hitting one from December through April every year.

Here’s what I don’t get, and maybe someone out there can help me..Why do we keep going back for more year after year? Are they ever that accurate? Are we addicts?Do “experts” pick Seattle Seahawks or any other NFL franchise’s draft choices correctly at all?

I decided to take a look at 10 mock drafts from some elite NFL insiders and various fan websites and compare them to the actual draft. I wanted to see if they even came close to accurately predicting the action in the 1st round. Here’s what I found:

 

The Best:

Don Banks

Don Banks: 7/32 (.22)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mel Kiper, ESPN

Mel Kiper: 7/32 (.22)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pat Kirwan

Pat Kirwan: 7/32 (.22)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mike Mayock, NFL Network

Mike Mayock: 6/32 (.19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nfldraftseason.com: 6/32 (.19)

 

The rest: 

Michael Lombardi: 5/32 (.16)

Todd McShay: 4/32 (.13)

Rob Rang: 3/32 (.09)

Pete Prisco: 3/32 (.09)

DraftCountdown.com: 3/32 (.09)

FUN FACT: Every mock correctly guessed 3 picks: #1 Andrew Luck #2 RGIII, and #8 Ryan Tannehill.. Yay! 

So there you have it.. Not even close. I want to point out that this was not in any way, an attack on the experts, but more a look at how close to the vest NFL teams hold their cards leading up to the draft. I also want to point out that knowing how far off these folks are from reality, the fact I keep reading them is clear…. I’m an addict, and a glutton for punishment and agony.

Note to self:  While these Mock drafts can be a great conversation piece, it’s obvious they shouldn’t ever be taken too seriously.

———

So tell us what you think. Do you enjoy the yearly crop of NFL Mock Drafts? Comment below and let us know.

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About Will

Football fanatic, former coach, and obsessive blogger. Proud member of the Seahawks 12thManNation. Follow him on twitter @12thManScribe

Discussion

5 thoughts on “NFL Mock Drafts: Expert predictions or “expert” guessing? You be the judge.

  1. Let’s be honest, without mock drafts, football fans would be in absolute agony for a solid month. I like seeing and mock drafts and showcasing a players talents, but I like Lombardi and Mayock. As a Seahawk fan, do you think you could’ve picked 5 mock Seahawk drafts and had Bruce Irvin in the 1st round? Sometimes teams make unsightly decisions or pick the best player available, and a lot of players fell farther than expected in the draft. Cordy Glenn in the 2nd? The guy was easily top-15 talent that just fell below what was expected. I still think mock drafts are more for us fans who would lose our shit if we were bored from that time between the Super Bowl and the Draft, aside from the combine, pro days, and college spring days.

    Posted by dynastygamer | April 30, 2012, 2:33 am
    • Great points ! As you read, I’m stuck in the same cycle you are.. It’s agonizing to wait several months for any news on the Seattle Seahawks. By the time the draft draws near, I’m a wreck. I guess the draft and mini/training camp reports are like the cracker packets before dinner at the Steak house.. You want more, but you’ll eat what’s available.
      Thanks for writing!

      Posted by Will | April 30, 2012, 2:44 am
  2. I think at the end of the day it’s all just a big guess. Too many things can happen to ruin any mock drafts.

    Posted by jerseyzzz | April 30, 2012, 4:08 am
  3. I just had to go back and look at what Mel Kiper forecasted for the Seahawks in 2010, and while he nailed the Okung pick at #6 (as did just about the rest of the world), he utterly failed with the Seahawks #14 pick. He had the Seahawks taking USC DE Everson Griffen who ended up falling all the way to the 4th round, and he had Earl Thomas at the end of the first round going to the Cowboys. One of those two players has made the Pro Bowl and the other has as many arrests as forced fumbles (2).

    Yet, people take him seriously when he gives the Seahawks grief for reaching with the Bruce Irvin pick? Yeah, Griffen wouldn’t have been a reach at all in the first round (or 2nd or 3rd), but at the same time he probably thought Seattle should have traded down if they really wanted to draft Thomas.

    Posted by Military Sea Hawkers (@Mil_SeaHawkers) | April 30, 2012, 4:12 am
  4. I think it can go either way. I was quick to judge as well, but before I did, I did a little reading, and watched some you tube interviews–anything I could find. I am excited about Wilson, as I am about Irvin–they are smart picks–I am looking forward to this football year more than ever. Good article Will, love it, and I love Drew’s article as well –I always enjoy what you both have to say. Thanks,

    Posted by Drew | May 3, 2012, 10:51 pm

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