Over the last few years, I’ve struggled mightily with the perpetual flow of mock drafts and expert team needs assessments. For some, they are a lifeline to alleged “inside ” information of their favorite team’s plans. For others they are just a filler in an otherwise slow NFL off-season news cycle. Either way, you can’t shake a stick without hitting one from December through April every year.
Here’s what I don’t get, and maybe someone out there can help me..Why do we keep going back for more year after year? Are they ever that accurate? Are we addicts?Do “experts” pick Seattle Seahawks or any other NFL franchise’s draft choices correctly at all?
I decided to take a look at 10 mock drafts from some elite NFL insiders and various fan websites and compare them to the actual draft. I wanted to see if they even came close to accurately predicting the action in the 1st round. Here’s what I found:
Don Banks: 7/32 (.22)
Mel Kiper: 7/32 (.22)
Pat Kirwan: 7/32 (.22)
Mike Mayock: 6/32 (.19)
Nfldraftseason.com: 6/32 (.19)
Michael Lombardi: 5/32 (.16)
Todd McShay: 4/32 (.13)
Rob Rang: 3/32 (.09)
Pete Prisco: 3/32 (.09)
DraftCountdown.com: 3/32 (.09)
FUN FACT: Every mock correctly guessed 3 picks: #1 Andrew Luck #2 RGIII, and #8 Ryan Tannehill.. Yay!
So there you have it.. Not even close. I want to point out that this was not in any way, an attack on the experts, but more a look at how close to the vest NFL teams hold their cards leading up to the draft. I also want to point out that knowing how far off these folks are from reality, the fact I keep reading them is clear…. I’m an addict, and a glutton for punishment and agony.
Note to self: While these Mock drafts can be a great conversation piece, it’s obvious they shouldn’t ever be taken too seriously.
So tell us what you think. Do you enjoy the yearly crop of NFL Mock Drafts? Comment below and let us know.